ANZ will seek an “independent decision through the avenues of review available” following the ACCC’s decision of Friday not to grant authorisation for ANZ’s proposed acquisition of Suncorp Bank. This means ANZ will take its case to the Australian Competition Tribunal, a process that will have the support of Suncorp. Assuming ANZ were successful in a hearing before the Tribunal, the merger would likely not proceed until mid-2024, Suncorp said. The ACCC said it considers that in the absence of the proposed acquisition, “ANZ would likely seek to continue to grow organically, and in doing so, would likely continue to be incentivised to compete harder than the other major banks to grow its domestic market share. “Conversely, the proposed acquisition would likely make ANZ’s income and profits more dependent on market conditions in Australia, and its incentive to coordinate [with other major banks] on home loans correspondingly greater.” As has been evident for months, the ACCC is championing “the Bendigo Merger Counterfactual.” “A combined Bendigo/Suncorp Bank will likely attenuate the ability and incentive of the major banks to engage in or sustain coordination more effectively than Bendigo and Adelaide Bank alone,” the ACCC said. “This may occur because a combined Bendigo/Suncorp Bank could pursue a different competitive strategy from the major banks, which would make it a more effective challenger firm than each currently is.  “This would alter the competitive dynamics because another disruptor in the market would reduce the ability and incentive of the major banks to engage in cooperative behaviour.” The ACCC said it considers a combined Bendigo/Suncorp Bank “would both strengthen and diversify the competitive fringe of challenger banks in a way that is likely to reduce the ability and incentive of the major banks to engage in coordination.  “On this basis, the ACCC considers that the likelihood or extent of coordinated effects arising from the proposed acquisition is likely to be even greater when assessed against this counterfactual.   “Having regard to the importance of competition between the major banks in the home loan market, the significant cost and scale advantages they enjoy over other banks and the high barriers to entry and expansion, the competitive impact of any coordination between the major banks emerging would be substantial.  “Taking all of the above evidence into account, the ACCC considers the proposed acquisition is likely to increase the incentives of the major banks to engage in coordination, materially increasing the likelihood of coordination being initiated and/or sustained by the major banks.  “On this basis, the ACCC is not persuaded that the proposed acquisition is not likely to result in a substantial lessening of competition in the market for home loans on the basis of coordinated effects.”