First published 9 July 2007. This article is a revised version of a talk given by Ian Rogers to a closed conference of staff of APRA and ASIC in June 2007.You've probably got two choices when things turn crook.You can say everything is ok.Or perhaps, as a close substitute, that things are going to be ok.Or you could say that someone else, or some other institution, is responsible.Rob Jolly and Andrew McCutcheon said both those things amid the initial flurry of rumours, and the first run, on Pyramid Building Society in early 1990.Neither defence turned out to be true. Pyramid was crook and the someone else - the Reserve Bank, in that instance - artfully dodged any blame.Jolly in due course was bounced out of cabinet - the same Victorian cabinet that did, however, deal in a more measured, if still painful, fashion with the consequences of the reckless commercial lending of Tricontinental, which broke State Bank of Victoria.So when things go crook, what would you say?And that's not really a rhetorical question. I'll be asking you that question again at the end of this, on one aspect of critical relevance to themes of this conference where I'd say some of you have dropped the ball.But I'll save the detail on that point for the end. This is what I'm going to cover.First, some brief comments on the political economy of the credit boom and my take on the credit cycle.Second, some public relations advice, or at least a review of the weaknesses - there aren't too many strengths - of the media.Third, the application of some of those views on the media to the reporting of, and the regulatory response to, the recent failure of several construction financiers.Fourth, some sampling of financial failures of the early 1990s.Then fifth, a return to a couple of topical issues: one being superannuation and the second financial guarantees.I have a sixth topic, which is cultural, I suppose, but I'm going to leave that for the Q&A. Political economy and banking statisticsFirst up, an endorsement for the thinking that informs this conference. Like of lot analysts - though not, it seems, most businesses and households - you can't help thinking that the economies of Australia and New Zealand and many other more developed economies are seriously overdue for a recession and everyone here recalls that recessions induce financial failures.I'm not suggesting we're about to get a recession, though.I thought the credit boom and the related surge in household debt servicing costs - which enjoyed its most serious increase in 2003 and 2004 - was the factor likely to give rise to a downturn in Australia. While hardly ever saying so explicitly, an ongoing emphasis in my journalism on indicators around credit quality reflects my keen interest in making the most of flow of data from the banking