A stressed ANZ may save dividend, says Goldman Sachs
Stress on ANZ's earnings and dividends from any surge in loan losses on mining sector loans may be no grave period for the bank.Three banking analysts at Goldman Sachs - Andrew Lyons, Ashley Dalziell and Yu Chuan Leong - screened ANZ's syndicated resources loans to assess earnings risk.In the analysis, Goldman Sachs said its stressed scenario implied cumulative losses on resource loans of around eight per cent. This would lift the bad debt ratio by 59 basis points to 70 bps, an outcome the analysts describe as "mid-cycle levels."The hit to ANZ's earning per share in this event would be five per cent, while the "dividend trajectory could be sustained."The research finds a lot to like in the management of ANZ's corporate loan book.The analysts argue that "although ANZ has fared worse than peers through past commercial asset quality cycles, something that has left a lasting impression on investors, we believe the quality of ANZ's commercial exposures has improved in recent years, particularly relative to its peers."They wrote that "steps taken to de-risk the corporate book since 2008/09 and a shift in product focus leaves ANZ's corporate exposures better positioned for a downturn than in 2007 and relatively better positioned versus peers than what is currently reflected in share prices."They highlight that "ANZ's exposure to industries which have traditionally driven corporate asset quality deterioration now make up a much smaller proportion of ANZ's book. As a proportion of non-consumer exposures, ANZ has the lowest exposure to the mining and agriculture, construction, and property services amongst the major banks."ANZ was most active in the financial sector, energy and consumer sectors.