ABS outlook for 2010 stable
Both Standard & Poor's and Moody's released their fourth quarter 2009 reviews of the Australian asset-backed securities market last week. The Australian ABS sector has revived, with rebounding issuance numbers in the last quarter of 2009, while loss and delinquency rates stabilised as Australian macro-economic conditions improved, said Moody's. S&P noted that the only issuance in the last quarter came from the A$867 million Bella Trust Series 2009-1 (an entity managed by Lloyds Banking Group) and which was also the largest issue of the year.Both ratings agencies expect the rating performance of the sector to remain stable throughout 2010. This is despite some fluctuations in the credit quality of receivables seen in 2009, said Moody's.S&P observed that recovery rates on most arrears increased to their highest levels for the year in the last quarter, reflecting signs of improvement in the economy. On a weighted average basis, S&P said arrears across the sector amounted to no more than 2.9 per cent of outstandings, at the end of the quarter.Bella Trust Series 2009-1 has arrears running at 0.4 per cent, but the highest level of arrears remains in the Liberty Small Ticket CMBS 2007-1 Trust, which stood at 13.7 per cent, albeit down from 14.7 per cent at the end of the third quarter. Next was again the Seiza Augustus Series 2007-1 Trust with arrears of 8.5 per cent, but down substantially from 14.1 per cent previously.Unfortunately, the improvement in arrears is mostly due to charge-offs to the unrated notes issued by the Trust. This of course, lessened the credit support available to the subordinated notes, which were downgraded accordingly during the year. Fitch Ratings, meanwhile, upgraded, affirmed and downgraded various tranches of notes issued by the Mobius ELR-01, Mobius NCM-03 and Mobius NCM-04 Trusts. In the case of the Mobius ELR-01 Trust the Class A notes were upgraded to 'BB' from 'B'. The class B, C, D and E notes of the Mobius NCM-3 Trust were upgraded to 'AA', 'A', 'BB' and 'CCC' from 'A', 'BBB', 'B+' and 'C', respectively. And the Class C, D and E notes of the Mobius NCM-04 Trust were upgraded to 'A+', 'B', and 'CCC' from 'A-', 'CCC' and 'C', respectively. The Class M notes were downgraded to 'B' from 'BBB'.The upgrades were largely due to the progressive paydown of the affected notes and of reducing arrears on the underlying loans. The ratings on all other notes issued by the Trusts were affirmed.