ABS report flow timed for ASF conference
Fitch released a flurry of reports on the securitisation sector last week, no doubt timed to coincide with the Australian Securitisation Forum's annual conference, held in Sydney. The Fitch quarterly report showed that mortgage delinquencies of more than 30 days had declined for the third consecutive quarter, reaching 1.21 per cent of mortgage outstandings at the end of September, down from 1.40 per cent at the end of June. Moreover, arrears in all categories of more than 30, 60 and 90 days had declined - a result not seen since the same quarter in 2007. Fitch's Reduced Documentation Mortgage Index for lo-doc mortgages also recorded three consecutive quarters of falling arrears. Arrears of more than 30 days fell to 4.72 per cent, from 5.68 per cent at the end of June.Fitch expects arrears to remain steady for the remainder of the year but a seasonal increase could be seen early in the new year. In a separate report, Fitch made the not surprising observation that the delinquency performance of AOFM-backed RMBS issues was superior to that of RMBS issues made prior to AOFM involvement in the sector. Fitch said arrears on AOFM-backed RMBS are very low and no losses have been incurred or claims made against mortgage insurance. AOFM-backed RMBS issues have only been made since November last year.In the third report, entitled "Australian CMBS: The Door Re-opens", Fitch said the Australian CMBS market has successfully refinanced all 2009 year-to-date maturities, totalling A$2.8 billion, and has seen a re-opening of the market with the first new issuance of CMBS after a two-year hiatus (Macquarie CountryWide Finance Pty Ltd. Series 3). Fitch notes that the total amount of outstanding Australian CMBS has decreased in size to just A$5.23 billion from A$7.79 billion, with maturities of A$2.4 billion scheduled during 2010. The report notes that property cashflows generally remain strong due to high occupancy levels and low tenant defaults but that asset values continue to be negatively impacted by expanding capitalisation rates. However, in most CMBS transactions the value of the cross collateralised asset pools remains higher than the value at origination.Fitch observed that issuers continue to seek greater funding diversification and are hoping the market's re-opening during 2009 will provide an additional source of liquidity for CMBS refinancing during 2010.In a separate report on Australia's lenders mortgage insurers, Moody's opined that they have continued to perform well throughout the financial crisis and downturn in the housing market, posting profits every year, including 2008, when mortgage defaults peaked. The performance of Australia's LMIs has been in sharp contrast to that of their peers and affiliates in the US and UK, where there have been huge dislocations in housing markets. While Moody's outlook for the Australian sector is negative, the data compiled to date supports the notion that delinquency rates for mortgages in Australia and losses for those loans in default will not approach the levels experienced in the US and Europe.