Analysis: Cost of funds headaches worsen for banks
Getting a read on the Australian effects of the European-induced stress to credit markets can be difficult.Banks by and large have sold little debt offshore since markets become much more complicated in August. And other pricing indicators, such as credit default swaps, leave a lot to be desired.Banks have not sold much term debt in the domestic market either, with a three-week lull since ANZ dabbled in the floating rate note market in late October with a A$1 billion, four-year deal priced at 135 basis points over bank bills.So the sequence of pricing on the mortgage-backed securities sold by mostly smaller banks over the last month or so is a key measure of market dynamics.As reported in the preceding article, spreads on RMBS are between 25 basis points and 35 bps wider than they were in the first half of the year. (The exact spread depends on the timing of the offering and the size of the bank making it.)These trends appear to have nothing to do with the quality of the underlying credit pools. Rather, they're an Australian result of the European crisis.It is also noteworthy that some banks have said they will look to structured debt issues to support their wholesale funding plans.Speaking at the NAB's investor briefing at the end of October, finance director Mark Joiner said that "you can see the importance of secured funding starting to come back. I expect secured to play a more significant role for a while."Australian Prudential Regulation Authority chairman John Laker told a Senate committee around the same time that the Euro-crisis had effectively closed the global markets for long-term unsecured debt, an analysis unlikely to be modified by the turbulent politics of Europe over the three weeks since.ANZ at its results earlier this month produced a handy picture (above right) of the consequence of the dislocation in funding markets these last few months.Back in May ANZ put its "forecast portfolio funding cost", relative to the three-month swap rate, at around 120 bps and projected it to settle around that level for a couple of years before falling.An updated projection shows this cost rising to 160 bps over the three years to 2014, and this forecast must have worsened since the bank's treasury time pulled that data together.