Analysis: Recalibrating banking
Banks have an improbable task - some would say an impossible task - as they march towards a strenuous liquidity coverage ratio from 2015, and its even more unlikely companion, a net stable funding ratio, which is supposed to follow in 2018.To simplify these twin schemes, banks need an awful lot more long-term funding, including many more deposits, and they will need to ration credit to better match their funding profile.This doesn't sound much like late twentieth century or very early twenty-first century banking. Of course, that's the point of the policy, and plenty of bank executives are grumpy about the changes to their business models that it implies.Their task over the next three to six years is to refashion their funding strategies and to re-educate two truculent customer bases - funds managers and retail depositors - to help drag them over the line.Andrew Price, managing partner for financial services at Ernst & Young, said yesterday: "Those products that are intensive of liquidity for customers will become more expensive and those that enhance it will become cheaper."Banks especially need help from one customer base, the managers of Australia's A$1.1 trillion pool of superannuation savings. Only two per cent of this pool is invested in long-term securities, and less than one per cent is invested in corporate loans.Super funds hold 15 per cent of their assets in cash and another four per cent in short-term securities.Somehow banks need to induce super funds and their managers to allocate much more to long-term bank liabilities.The other target group that matters includes household depositors and the trustees of small scale funds who are major users of term deposits.ASIC and APRA are already pointing out to banks the need to teach depositors that the contract terms of today's term deposits need to change in a material way.To meet new rules on liquidity and funding, banks really need depositors to revert to the practices of many decades ago, when cashing in a term deposit was rare and the penalty severe.No doubt there are many opportunities in product design, pricing and marketing around this theme, as long as savers get the message that their funds are locked up in return for a fair interest rate.Banks would also like fund managers to buy more term debt of companies outside the banking system (though often originated within it, as the institutional arms of banks all desire).Forecasting the rise of "disintermediation" can be repetitive. This writer has been authoring pieces about the prospect of disintermediation since 1989, and, by and large, it hasn't happened yet.