Analysts expect NAB to maintain the momentum
National Australia Bank will continue to take market share away from its rivals in the retail and business banking markets, according to sell-side analysts.After the release of the bank's 2010/11 results last week, six out of six analysts' reports sighted by Banking Day have NAB rated a Buy (or Outperform), with a positive earnings outlook for 2011/12 and higher share price targets.Analysts liked the bank's strong loan growth, higher margins and disciplined approach to costs.RBS said: "NAB has the best exposure to domestic business credit growth, which we expect to improve over the next 12 months. We believe it will deliver sector-leading earnings per share growth in 2011/12."Goldman Sachs said it liked the fact that NAB continued to de-risk, with a $900 million reduction in its synthetic collateralised debt obligation exposure, and an increase in its stable funding index, from 80 per cent to 85 per cent (the stable funding index is the sum of retail deposits and wholesale term funding as a percentage of total funding).UBS left its Buy ratings unchanged, with a 12-month price target of $27.50. It expects net profits to rise from $5.2 billion in 2010/11 to $5.5 billion in the current financial year.NAB stock closed at $25.99 on Friday.RBS has a Buy rating on NAB stock, with a price target of $30.18.Deutsche Bank has a Buy recommendation on NAB and a 12-month price target of $28.70. The forecast is for $6.2 billion of cash earnings in 2011/12 - an increase of 13 per cent over the 2010/11 result.Goldman Sachs has the stock as a Buy, with a price target of $27.25. It is forecasting cash earnings of $6.5 billion next year.Credit Suisse rates the stock Outperform, with a price target of $28.50. Its cash earnings forecast for 2011/12 is $6.1 billion.Merrill Lynch upgraded its rating on NAB to Buy, with a price target of $26.60. While the overall response was positive, there were a number of caveats. UBS said an issue for NAB was the increase in bad and doubtful debts in its Business Bank. SME lending, which makes up a large part of NAB's business banking, is exhibiting "a material degree of stress", according to UBS."Many industries are under structural pressure (tourism, manufacturing, retail, construction and wholesale) and this may mean that SME BDD charges continue to rise for some time."RBS said it was concerned about the bank's funding requirement. It said: "NAB was required to raise a total of $32 billion of new term-funding in 2010/11. The concern is that, if this balance sheet momentum continues, NAB may struggle to get the required term funding at economic levels. NAB is required to refinance $23 billion of term wholesale funding next year."Deutsche Bank said it was concerned that a continuation of strong loan growth would put margins under pressure.