Analysts sceptical about Westpac's IT plans
Westpac's IT program aims to boost revenue outlook in line with that of competitors, but analysts are sceptical that the program will be able to improve efficiency."We don't see the program as being a major driver of the bank's earnings or revenue performance," Deutsche Bank wrote in a report circulated to clients yesterday. The Deutsche analysts believe that to maintain the constant expense to income ratio, Westpac would need to generate $300 million of productivity benefits to offset the cost of the SIP program and this will prove to be challenging.Bank of America Merrill Lynch also isn't convinced Westpac will be able to offset costs by increasing revenue. "We would become more comfortable if WBC can demonstrate an ability to quickly deliver savings from its renewed focus on costs but for now retain an element of cost pressure from the SIP reinvestment."UBS notes that Westpac's focus on addressing legacy technology issues is important for minimising the negative outlook for jaws and its cost-to-income ratio but believes driving market share outcomes from technology improvement is difficult given the competitiveness of the industry.UBS' forecasts are more conservative than management guidance and it expects the cost-to-income ratio to rise from around 40 per cent currently to around 42 per cent by the 2012 financial year. Morgan Stanley also forecasts a rise in cost-to-income ratio, from 41.3 per cent in FY10 to 42.7 per cent in FY11, but sees an improvement, to 41.9 per cent, in FY12.Credit Suisse believes there will just some minor improvements in the cost-to -income ratio in FY12, and any material reduction will be realised only in FY13 and FY14. According to the broker's projection, the cost-to-income ratio is set to deteriorate in FY10 and FY11, mainly because of subdued revenues.RBS and Goldman Sachs have their cost-to-income ratio in line with the guidance provided by Westpac.Analysts drew parallels between Westpac's and CBA's IT strategies, but saw CBA's as being superior.According to Credit Suisse, CBA's strategy was the most evolved, in terms of execution, among the major banks, probably by several years.Royal Bank of Scotland noted that Westpac will not complete the migration of its deposit clients to the new platform before FY14, while CBA will finish this by the first half of FY11.Citigroup went a step further and noted that, despite spending in line with peers, Westpac will not deliver a "shiny new" IT platform by the end of the project.