ANZ realistic on five-year pricing
After a relatively quiet October (which was, at least in part, due to the upcoming release of annual results for three of the big four banks) ANZ provided the domestic bond market with a solid start to November with a A$1.25 billion issue, on Thursday. This came just a day after reports that National Australia Bank pulled a A$500 million issue the week before, due to weak demand caused by concerns over APRA's new draft liquidity policy.It is interesting to contrast the size and pricing of the two bank issues, as reported. On the five-year tranche, NAB was offering an indicative margin of 80 to 90 basis points. (There was also said to be a seven-year tranche, with an indicative margin of 100 to 110 bps over.) At face value this does not appear unreasonable. The last five-year issue completed by one of the big four came from NAB in September, and was priced at 96 bps over bank bills/swap. However, the pricing of recent five-year issues in the secondary market does not suggest there has been any spread contraction since, which NAB's offer implied.The ANZ priced its A$625 million fixed and floating rate tranches at 100 bps over swap/bank bills and was able to sell 2.5 times the amount NAB was seeking. ANZ reported low levels of demand from bank liquidity books but the transaction demonstrates that funding can still be obtained, in volume, at the right price.The pricing of the ANZ issue also recognises that financial markets generally softened over the second half of October 2009. Equities markets have declined and credit default swaps markets have seen spreads widen again. There has been a small reversal of a rapid improvement in market conditions that was seen to have moved too far ahead of the real economy.In this context, the difference between the two deals may simply be one of NAB being too ambitious and ANZ getting the pricing right.