APRA imprint an elusive force in Sydney and Melbourne
APRA's latest turn of the vice on loans to property investors is "unlikely to substantially slow the increases in dwelling values, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne," Cameron Kusher, head of research at CoreLogic believes.Rather, investment fundamentals may well leave their mark of the frothy property prices of Australia's two largest cities, the chief commentator for the influential research house believes. APRA's activism, in Kusher's view, only extends the factors at play."From an investor's rationale, surely the proposition for investment, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne is starting to weaken," Kusher wrote in a blog post yesterday."The current market growth cycle has now been running for almost five years, yields have been compressed to record lows, affordability is stretching household budgets, debt levels are at record highs, mortgage rates are edging higher," Kusher said.In the property market, one snapshot of data suggests it's business as usual.For Sydney, AFR.com reported on Sunday, the clearance rate was 81.5 per cent (on preliminary data), up from 78 per cent last week, this time on CoreLogic figures.In Melbourne, the clearance rate was 81 per cent, up from 79.6 per cent a week earlier.Of APRA's measures over the last week, Kusher played up the forewarning by the banking regulator that risk weights on banks' housing loans would be lifted. APRA chair Wayne Byres spelled this future reform out (leaving out any guide on scale or the timetable) in a landmark speech on Wednesday at the AFR Banking & Wealth Summit in Sydney.It is those yet to announced reforms by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority that Kusher said would be the measures "which will likely push mortgage rates higher."Taking a firmer view than in the past, Kusher concluded: "All these factors combined should be sending a firm signal to investors that housing markets are likely approaching their peak."Do they really want to be left holding a low yielding asset with dimmer growth prospects and higher servicing costs?"Kusher provided wider perspective on the "macroprudential" measures set out by APRA two Fridays ago, his analysis centred on the significance for property price levels.APRA last week did its best, amid cynicism, to position its concerns in a nuanced manner."Our role in the current environment," Byres told the AFR conference last week, "is to promote a higher-than-normal degree of prudence - definitely by lenders and, ideally, also borrowers - in both credit decisions and balance sheet strength."Thus, Kusher wrote, "all of these changes being made are aimed at improving mortgage quality, but neither APRA, ASIC nor the RBA are responsible for setting an appropriate level for growth in dwelling values."So, he said, the question remains: will these measures slow demand enough to slow the rate of value growth?Kusher then set out to "make some educated assumptions" on the impact on credit demand and price growth."Reducing the flow of interest-only lending may see some slowing of demand from the investor segment of the market although keep in mind it has been trending lower and needs to fall from 37.5 per cent to 30