APRA stats confirm the shape of lending trends
APRA yesterday released its quarterly ADI Property Exposures for the period to 30 September 2016, along with several other performance measures.Ever since the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority imposed tighter lending controls two years ago, new investor loans have fallen from A$38.6 billion in the 2014 December quarter to $33.2 billion, a drop of 14 per cent, according to an ABC report.Over the same period, the ABC said new owner-occupier loans rose 14 per cent, from $54.1 billion to $61.9 billion.As NAB's credit analysts noted in relation to these latest numbers, commercial property lending growth outpaced residential growth in the year to 30 September 2016 (up 8.7 per cent, as against 7.9 per cent)."Of more interest to us, though, is the impairment reduction of over 30 per cent to just $0.4 billion or just 0.3 per cent of exposures," observed NAB's credit analysts. "Although APRA's tables show very strong improvements in impairments since 2012, of course this means that there is little additional P&L benefits to be realised in the near future. Any possible future impairment increases won't have to be too numerically large to generate large percentage movements."NAB also wanted to highlight a furtherance of the trend, which became apparent three months ago, whereby foreign banks are stepping into the "other residential" commercial lending (apartments) and "land development" lending spaces."Although foreign banks (subsidiaries and branches) have reduced apartment lending this quarter they have added land development exposures at a greater pace than they did for the former in the second quarter of this year," NAB's credit analysts said in a note to clients.