Asian debt levels soar
Australian bankers tend to view Asia as a massive pool of savings that, given some tax and other policy reform, they can tap into to fuel growth.This view was challenged yesterday by Fred Neumann, HSBC's co-head of Asian economic research, who said Asia's ratio of credit to GDP had climbed to levels last seen during the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s.Neumann was meeting clients and presenting the bank's view on the Asian outlook in Sydney yesterday.The region's credit-to-GDP ratio has climbed from a low of around 80 per cent in the years between 2003 and 2005 to the current level of around 100 per cent.Neumann said Asia's economic resilience during the financial crisis has been underwritten by debt.He said this dynamic was now being disrupted by the withdrawal of European banks from Asian markets. European banks are big players in Asia and their withdrawal could bring about a credit squeeze.However, Neumann said, there was no need to hit the panic button. "This is not 1997," he said."We have well-capitalised banks throughout the region and strong foreign exchange reserves."Loan-to-deposit ratios peaked at close to 110 per cent in the late 1990s but had fallen back to below 75 per cent by 2002. And, despite the big increase in borrowing during the past few years, the current loan-to-deposit ratio is below 90 per cent.Credit ratios are falling in China, Hong Kong, India, Taiwan and Thailand. They are stable in Indonesia and Malaysia. They are still rising in Korea, the Philippines, Singapore and Sri Lanka.Countries with high corporate debt-to-equity ratios include Japan, China, India, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.Countries with high household debt levels include Japan, Korea, Malaysia and Singapore.