Asset-backed defaults edging towards GFC levels
Delinquencies among the pools of Australian motor vehicle loans underlying asset-backed securities are on the rise, according to a report from Moody's Investors Service. A year-on-year comparison of ABS delinquency rates disclosed a similar trend. Specifically, the agency said that 30+ day delinquencies for Australian auto loan ABS transactions rose to 1.69 per cent in July 2016, up from 1.35 per cent in January 2016 and 1.15 per cent in July 2015. Moody's warned that this is comparable to the delinquency levels evident during the global financial crisis in 2009, and was edging towards the peak of 1.87 per cent seen in 2010.Similarly, analysis of delinquencies rates among the prime Australian residential mortgage-backed transactions rated by Moody's rose to 1.51 per cent in July 2016, an increase from 1.35 per cent in January 2016 and 1.24 per cent in July 2015."Looking ahead, we expect that delinquencies for Australian auto loan ABS and prime RMBS will rise slightly over the remainder of 2016, because of below-trend nominal GDP growth," said Alena Chen, a Moody's vice president and senior analyst.