Banking the boom and banking the gloom
ANZ and National Australia Bank have the biggest exposure to the fast-growing mining, energy and agribusiness sectors, but ANZ also has the biggest exposure to the flagging manufacturing and retail sectors.JP Morgan banking analyst Scott Manning has used the major banks' exposure at default disclosures to analyse their sector positions and make some calculated guesses as to how these exposures might affect their performance. ANZ has the highest exposure to agriculture, forestry, fishing, mining and energy, followed by NAB, Commonwealth Bank and Westpac, the JP Morgan analysis shows. Manning said the difference in these exposures was not material.ANZ has the highest exposure to manufacturing, followed by Westpac, NAB and Commonwealth. The spread is more material in this case, with ANZ's share being more than double that of CBA's.ANZ has the highest exposure to wholesale and retail, followed by Westpac, NAB and Commonwealth.Commonwealth Bank has the highest exposure to transport and storage, followed by Westpac, ANZ and NAB.Manning said: "ANZ has the highest exposure across industries that are currently indicating a poor outlook."Either ANZ is well positioned to take advantage of any recovery in activity levels or, if the economy responds poorly to increasing interest rates in the future, one would expect a higher provisioning profile relative to its peers." JP Morgan and Fujitsu released their latest Australian SME market report yesterday. It shows that business credit, relative to GDP, has not yet started to recover from the decline that started at the end of 2007. The report also calculates what it calls the funding gap - the difference between the level of business investment undertaken and the amount of internal funding available. The lower the funding gap the less likely businesses are to go to their banks for funds.According to the report, the funding gap is at its lowest point since 2004. Based on this analysis, the outlook for business credit growth remains weak.One problem for the banks is that the mining sector has never been a big driver of business credit growth. "That sector doesn't have conventional funding," Manning said, a reference to its reliance on equity funding. And when miners do take on debt it is often sourced from global banks or the bond market.