BOQ: the glass is half empty, or half full
Citi Equities Research has downgraded the Bank of Queensland to Sell after its announcement last Friday that it had topped up its provisions. Citi expects BOQ to report a loss of A$25 million for the full year (which ended on August 31).However, Citi is sticking with its earlier forecast that BOQ will report a net profit of $231.4 million in 2013 and $264.9 million in 2014.Its Sell recommendation is based on its estimate that BOQ will not be able to produce returns above the cost of capital for the foreseeable future. Forecast return on equity is 8.6 per cent this year, 8.3 per cent in 2013 and 8.9 per cent in 2014.Citi said: "Management has elected to top up its collective provision by $15 million to account for ongoing economic and property challenges, particularly in south east Queensland. The result is a second-half bad and doubtful debt charge of $70 to $75 million, which is 10 to 15 per cent above market expectations."Goldman Sachs has maintained a Buy recommendation on BOQ stock, despite reducing its earnings forecasts for 2013 by 9.4 per cent (to $237.5 million) and for 2014 by 8.1 per cent (to $296.8 million). Goldman Sachs is sticking by BOQ because it sees a "long-term upside". It said: "Management indicated that arrears trends have improved in recent months. We also note that recent RP Data-Rismark house price data shows Gold Coast and Brisbane property prices now recovered to December 2011 levels. "BOQ is well placed for a Queensland recovery. It has continued to de-risk its portfolio, and forward asset quality indicators have been stable or improving. And recent cost restructuring should drive efficiency benefits in 2013 and beyond."