Bottom of the rating cycle has not yet been reached
This is the second and final part of an edited transcript of an interview late last year with Dominic Crawley, global head financial services ratings with Standard & Poor's, and Peter Sikora, senior director of financial institutions ratings with S&P in Melbourne. The first part appeared in yesterday's edition.Ian Rogers: We are starting to drift back towards low yield lending to big corporates. As that accelerates, even though the European banks are constrained, what are we setting up in two or three years time as banks puff out their balance sheets with loans to global corporates?Dominic Crawley: If you look back 10 or 15 years, the larger European banks were providing standby credit lines to corporates for commitment terms of as long as five to seven years for as little as five basis points. Banks will not be able to do that in the future. Two other points I would like to make. First, the banks just won't want to be providing term credit commitments for such long periods. Shorter term commitments will carry heavier capital costs than was the case before the crisis.This leads to the second point. Where such standby credit support is provided, the required 'pay-back' in terms of debt and equity capital markets business, asset management and advisory services will need to be greater, and more certain. Bank funding will become a bridge to public capital markets' refinancing, rather than a longer term commitment in its own right.I think there's a very strong consensus that that is what will happen.Ian Rogers: So, regarding the credit rating profile of the industry globally, can you take a stab at the top 50, 100 banks? Will the credit ratings be higher, lower, stable in five years' time?Dominic Crawley: Clearly, globally for banks, the bottom of the rating cycle has not yet been reached. The big uncertainty is the extent and nature of future government support built into bank ratings. Our ratings on banks include notches of uplift to reflect government support when we assess a bank is systemically important and where we expect a government to be supportive of that bank.The top 50 banks worldwide tend to be the type of institutions where, more often than not, we will be factoring in government support. Over a five-year time horizon, the big questions are: will the existing levels of government support remain? What will happen to the standalone credit profiles of individual banks - will they strengthen, stay the same, or fall further?I believe that the standalone credit profile of the larger banks should stabilise and recover as they reduce risk, build capital and establish liquidity buffers to meet the Basel III requirements. It is far more difficult to predict the direction of bank ratings. All things being equal, we should expect to see some strengthening, but this view is predicated on the maintenance of existing levels of government support. As I have already indicated, this remains a fundamental area of review and proposal by regulators across the world.Peter Sikora: