Brief: Moderate RMBS defaults in 2020
Moody's Investors Service found delinquencies among Australian residential mortgage-backed securities increased in December 2019 and predicts this upward trend is likely to continue "moderately" through 2020. Moody's senior analyst Alena Chen attributed this to "the muted economic environment, high levels of household and debt and, to a lesser extent, the conversion of interest-only mortgages to principal and interest loans." More broadly, Moody's forecast is for real GDP growth of 1.8 per cent in 2020, down from 2.0 per cent in 2019. Unemployment will be relatively steady at 5.2 per cent in 2020 from 5.1 per cent in December 2019.