Business banks set to do better out of Murray Inquiry
Now the dust has settled around the interim report of the Financial System Inquiry, the banking analysts at Credit Suisse have reaffirmed their preference for business orientated bank stocks over consumer orientated bank stocks. In the introductory comments to their response to the FSI report, the Credit Suisse banking analysts, led by Jarrod Martin, have outlined a couple of downside risks for the major banks, namely that: 1.   major bank mortgage risk weights are increased as part of the Inquiry's attempt to address perceived competition issues associated with differential capital treatments (that is, advanced vs. standardised mortgage risk weights); and 2.   an additional capital charge is introduced to address the Inquiry's concern about the moral hazard issues associated with the "too big to fail" perception of the majors (although they see this second risk as less likely than the first). Conversely, the regional banks could be relative winners from the Inquiry (for example, as Credit Suisse analysts suggest, the pathway to achieving advanced accreditation could be expedited) but they may not be clear absolute winners (the report appears quite reluctant to grant the regionals the lower mortgage risk weights they sought in their submissions). Business orientated banks, NAB particularly, are the key winners, said Martin. He added: "We believe the report overarchingly seeks to create a larger business financing market - notably through bank intermediated credit, listed 'vanilla' corporate bonds and equity financing) and seeks to incrementally limit further capital being allocated into the mortgage financing market."