Cash rate cut suits some
Another wave of mortgage price cutting could erupt as soon as today with several leading economists forecasting an official rate move by the Reserve Bank following its May board meeting.While the money markets have priced in only a 42 per cent chance of a rate cut at today's board meeting, ANZ's economics team believes the RBA will bite the bullet only two weeks out from the federal election."We think the RBA will see the need for additional stimulus in order to lift inflation to 2 per cent by the later part of the forecast horizon and consequently expect the cash rate to be cut by 25 basis points on Tuesday," writes ANZ's head of economics, David Plank, in a ten page research report."We don't see the timing of the election as a constraint on RBA action."The RBA cut the cash rate in 2013 and raised it in 2007 during election campaigns - albeit under a different Governor."Westpac's chief economist Bill Evans is sticking with a call he made in February that the central bank will wait until the August meeting when fresh GDP growth data will be available to RBA board members."A decision to begin a new rate cut cycle ten days out from a Federal election will be difficult," he argues in a research report. The precedents in previous elections are not relevant, although the Bank will be apolitical in its decision process."The RBA is on track for two rate cuts and we favour August and November."ANZ's Plank believes that a decision to defer lowering the cash rate had the potential to expose the board to criticism that its deliberations were affected by the federal election."If the Bank's forecasts support the case for a cut then we think it will ease regardless of the election being only two weeks away," Plank states."For the RBA to do nothing would open it up to as much criticism of acting with one eye on politics as a decision to ease. "Best, we think, for the RBA to do what its analysis tells it to do."UBS chief economist George Tharenou also sees a rate cut following today's meeting, arguing that the Australian banking system has succumbed to a credit crunch scenario.If Tharenou's analysis is correct another official rate cut could still trigger another round of mortgage repricings.However, the macro-economic effect of a looser monetary policy could be undermined by regulatory and policy factors constraining the availability of credit.There is some evidence to support this view, with major banks in recent months targeting high equity borrowers in the refinance market with their best mortgage price offers.Also, the major banks have largely exited alternative mortgage markets, such as equity release home loans and property lending to self-managed super funds.