Catch-up for banks amid resource recovery
This week saw a continuation of the banks playing catch-up in the wake of resource stocks. Indeed, more than half of the performance of the ASX 100 from the nadir of the credit crisis to last Friday had been due solely to one stock - BHP Billiton. While resource stocks have benefited in general from the weaker US dollar (which pushes up commodity prices), iron ore price speculation in particular has pushed BHP up well above analysts' average price targets.It wasn't long before analysts started calling the resource rally overbought, at least in the short term. The logical next step was thus to switch out of an over-performing sector into something that had underperformed, and the most obvious candidate was the big banks. Not the little banks. No one will touch them with a ten foot pole. So it comes as no surprise that this week the banks continued to outperform.There's only one small problem. While BHP and other resource stocks remain largely above their average targets, the same thing has happened to the banks. Of the big five, Westpac, Commonwealth and St George are all now trading above their FNArena average target price levels. ANZ has only 0.6 per cent to go, while National remains the laggard (UK exposure is a drag) and is still 4.5 per cent below target.This should be a warning sign. For either analysts have to begin shifting their 2008 financial year earnings expectations higher, thus increasing their targets, or the market is generally overbought and needs a pullback. Given its meteoric rise since the August 17 Fed discount rate cut, a pullback might not be such a bad thing. Macquarie noted this week that earnings revisions for 2008, as a result of company guidance following the FY07 results, were on average very flat. Something has to give.Or the analysts are simply wrong, and will need to find ways to sneak up their targets without admitting such. It certainly wouldn't be the first time. But there is a level of uncertainty at the moment, despite the fact that over in New York there seems little holding back the stock market. Nowhere else is this uncertainty more apparent than in JP Morgan's analysis.Last Friday, JP Morgan's strategists issued a report "reiterating" the team's Overweight call on banks. The strategists noted that resource stocks had run from an FY08 forward PE of 13.6x in August to 15.8x. Industrials ex-financials had hit 18.7x, while banks were trading at a mere 13.9x. The obvious portfolio reallocation was thus out of resources and industrials and into banks.But as everyone who has been reading this column for a while knows, the JP Morgan bank analysts are the least bullish in the market. Indeed, yesterday the analysts issued their own report in which they suggested investors should "stay Underweight the banking sector". They recognised that banks had underperformed other sectors, but then ran off a series of eight reasons why they should not be bought. In summary, valuations are expensive (as shown