Comment: Cartel tests bank defences
A$15 million is peanuts as a joint fine on ANZ and Macquarie for cartel conduct. The admitted conduct: Malaysian ringgit rate fixing, a breach of trust by two iconic banks from Australia.The fine works out as three and half hours profitable labour for ANZ. For Macquarie it's a few hours longer, though still less than one day's profit.The settlement may be an early volley in an awkward accommodation among banks with their supervisors on bank bill swap matters.A resolution of these matters seems likely, the terms for now stranded in rancour.The banks under the ASIC and ACCC gun want a 'get of civil court class action jail free card' as a side deal. For now, they are not getting it.The fines each bank must volunteer may also divert talks, but an aggregate industry bill in the hundreds of millions conceivably looms.CBA is yet to be sued for bank bill swap rate twiddling, a time-taking that may prove telling.BBSW is an unresolved ASIC tangle for Commonwealth Bank's three peers. All face the courts on two fronts. US litigation entrepreneurs are one thorn, free loaders on ASIC enforcement action will be no side-show. Both sores need resolving at some point.The state of industry thinking is unclear but, as Greg Medcraft's ASIC and Rod Sims' ACCC will have intended, discordant notes will get a hearing.Greg Medcraft's ASIC, having hung its hat on the international fad for alleged, widespread fixing of the bank rate, expects a material amount of money to land in consolidated revenue, with the regulator's flag affixed.Contrition may also be required as the voluntary fines mount. There may be plenty more wealth and retail malfeasance to own up to as well.One or two banking outfits in Australia, more may be paid by them proportionate to scale, let's see.It could settle pretty badly if ASIC and the feds get carried away.Look for an extension of the cartel catalogue. Three more names are obvious additions to any list.Friday's announcement shamed ANZ and Macquarie, but not a soul thinks either bank operates in or near a cartel of as few as two. The Singapore sideshow is but a pointer to entrenched conduct.Oligopoly industry structures don't need fall into cartel conduct in order to optimise returns. But one must face the pressures within banking to cooperate, and signal and collude, a force fuelled by the imperative of maximised profits.The ACCC's target list has obvious accomplices for any theorised variant of this Singapore canter, an ANZ centric party.Accumulating evidence of Australian banking cartel conduct may be clashing with accelerating regulator interest in results, fines and industry reform.Ten or 100 names could be added to the list of collaborators with the cartel set out by the ACCC last week.Four plus Macquarie, how much drive is there at the ACCC and ASIC to define misbehaviour by Australian banks? How severe are sanction scenarios?25 November 2016 may prove the opener to the unravelling of the Australian banking cartel.Or business may continue as usual.