Comment: So many starting points for Bowen's Royal Commission
Whatever Chris Bowen lets fly with at a Bloomberg event in Sydney today, the question facing all ADI boards is where in banking and finance the excavators of the Royal Commission will start.FX cartels, rev that topic up.ANZ and Macquarie admitted to one cartel charge, in a financial markets niche. The agreed facts in that case are a pointer to the rich and detailed disclosures ahead. These connect the five banks at the core of the Australian financial system in compromising ways.One cartel charge? Or 100s or 1000s? This weekend's ATM fees cut ballet, turn that over for fun.The financial planning rip offs? All so ho hum now, narrow this front of the inquiry.Mortgage origination practice and quality, with the raw facts on LIAR loans?Origination will be a bloodbath. Responsible lending in banking? Hmmm, not always, not even often, in recent history for sure.The current Westpac case on questionable income verification steps is only one of many matters of equal merit on which ASIC and APRA might act, but maybe not before SCs fossick amid emails at the banking inquiry.Price co-ordination on the standard variable rate, explain that one. So many more pricing behaviours to study.Allocating market shares and profit pools? Don't be afraid - be very afraid.Managing and governing all this? A, B and C graders within Australia's ruling class, all now on notice - prosecutions are pending.Who prods whom when and why among the Council of Financial Regulators. APRA in the gun most. APRA's reunion with the RBA lies on the horizon.A chronicle of contacts by CEOs with all regulators and with each other and full bottle on lobbying. The daily reports, briefings, maybe insight on bribes. Corruption risks and probability - that pair make a promising theme.Libraries of CEO soirees and emails and phone calls, all with the management diaries, laid out, near full.The 'shouldabeen' merger of NAB and ANZ, the St George sprint for safety and Bankwest, again, and all amidst so much, much more daily detail on the crisis of 2008.The correspondence files will bulge at the Royal Commission website.The utility of the Australian Banking Association and its role, if any, fostering cooperative behaviour among five banks, a portion of this assumed to be to the detriment of consumer welfare.This year's 2017 ABA CEO selection: it's the nature of the beast that the recent affairs at the anti-nationalisation lobby will be of foremost interest. The ABA set for sideshow alley and the main arena.For Bowen and Labor leader Bill Shorten the unfolding Royal Commission will unleash a noisy supplement to the news cycle, one bound to be of use to the government's interests.The oligopoly of four in Australian banking has rolled along for 35 years. The early 1980s roll up of six of Australia's banks into four was in part of function of the then recent 1981 recession. (The second last in Australia).The coordination of sharing out that system risk in the late Fraser Howard government; files on that will make a good comparator.Their dominance;