Comyn challenges RBA's reading of tax cut impact
Commonwealth Bank chief executive Matt Comyn has challenged recent analysis by the Reserve Bank that the government's income tax cuts have done little so far to revive consumer spending.In his address to the company's annual meeting in Sydney on Wednesday, Comyn indicated that the July 1 tax cuts were supporting household consumption in the economy but that the three recent official rate reductions were undermining the incomes of people with savings."There are signs that the government's recent tax cuts for many Australian families have supported the economy at this time," the CBA boss told shareholders."Lower interest rates are a feature globally, and the local cash rate has fallen 75 basis points since May."This low rate environment creates challenges for our customers and for financial institutions. "We very much recognise that customers who rely on interest payments from savings balances have seen this income decrease."While the minutes of the RBA board's October meeting show that the central bank is cognizant of the negative impact that tapering rates are having on retiree incomes, board members observed that the government's tax cuts had delivered no discernible impact on spending by households."Members noted that there had not yet been evidence of a pick-up in household spending following the recent reductions in the cash rate and receipt of the tax offset payments, although they acknowledged that it may be too early to expect any signs of pick up," the board said in its minutes of the meeting.Comyn's comment about the impact of the tax cuts is consistent with observations made recently by CBA economists who say they have detected a "disappointing" downturn in consumer spending intentions.The October edition of CBA's household spending intentions series found that the tax cuts had supported spending in some parts of the economy in September, but that the official rate reductions were having a negative effect on the psychology of consumers.CBA models household spending intentions by using Google analytical tools to interpret consumer banking transaction data."A deeper dive into the retail spending data does show some response in those areas(retail industries) where tax rebates are most likely to be spent," the bank said in the October report."But the pull back is also potentially a sign that interest rate cuts are less effective - consumers interpret rate cuts from record lows as a sign of economic weakness and keep their wallets shut."The findings of CBA's spending intentions report also seem inconsistent with the most recent anecdotal research compiled by the RBA's industry liaison program."Retail sales had remained subdued in July and car sales decreased in August," the RBA said in its board minutes."Despite weak reported retails sales conditions generally, on a slightly more positive note some contacts in the Bank's liaison program had reported a mild pick-up in retail sales since July."Apart from challenging the RBA's reading of the impact of the income tax cuts, Comyn said very little more about the health and direction of the domestic economy.