Consumer credit delinquencies an emerging problem in the US
The United States faces the risk of a significant rise in consumer credit delinquencies, UBS warns in a credit strategy report issued this week.The report points the finger at non-bank lenders for easing consumer lending standards significantly."Early warning signals with respect to shifts in lending conditions and changes in US delinquency trends will come from the non-bank rather than the bank sectors," the report saidNon-performing loans have increased for the first time in the post-crisis cycle, UBS said.With a nod to the class structure, UBS explained that "consumer inequality poses upside risks to delinquencies. The post-crisis improvement in US household finances masks substantial inequality, which built up in prior decades and persists post-crisis."The UBS language is stark on the US credit supply sector. "Income and wealth was decimated for many during the financial crisis, and challenges persist, with a small majority of lower income and large minority of middle income consumers struggling to meet expenses.""Too much concentrated capital is chasing too few creditworthy borrowers, particularly in a low rate environment where non-banks drive loan growth."This sets up interest in the financial sector's own-goal in the making courtesy of the fintech and P2P bubble."We document a significant easing in lending conditions to US households post-crisis, driven predominantly by the surge in lower quality, non-bank lending."In consumer loans, we outline clear signs of performance deterioration across loan categories by vintage, credit tier and lender type. The rise in US consumer delinquencies is broad-based and looks poised to persist."