Business information analysts at IBISWorld expect contactless payment methods to "all but replace" physical credit and debit card payments by 2020 for transactions under $100. Overall, the payments sector is to become a Darwinian environment, with PIN-only and contactless credit card and debit card purchases set to continue their assault on cheque and cash options, after posting annualised transaction growth of 6.6 per cent and 14.2 per cent, respectively, over the four years to 2013/14.One of the main losers will be ATM operators, despite holes in the wall being in more locations than ever before. And while there has been a reduction in the use of cheques for small and medium purchases, use of cheques for large transactions has continued. According to IBISWorld's research, in 2013-14, the average value of a cheque totalled A$4,045, higher than at any point in history. IBISWorld expects the Big Four retail banks to retain their dominance of the lending market. The Big Four controlled some $2.3 trillion of loans as at June 2014, against the $87.9 billion of outstanding loans provided to households and businesses by financial corporations other than the banks."While banks remain the dominant force behind consumer and business lending, Coles' impending foray into personal loans could be indicative of things to come as supermarkets, airlines and department stores attempt to muscle in on the market," said Dan Ruthven, general manager at IBISWorld Australia."There's little standing in the way of non-traditional firms entering the retail banking sector," said Ruthven. "Improving technology, centralised contact points and the reduced use of branches are the main factors driving new companies into the uncharted waters of retail banking."However, until employers start paying wages to accounts other than those provided by the major banks and until the mortgage industry becomes decentralised, it will be difficult for new financial providers to significantly erode the market share of the established Big Four and for emerging payment systems to carry increasing capital flows.Another notable trend highlighted by the firm was the fall in the number of bank, credit union and building society branches. The total number of branches fell by 130 during 2012-13, continuing a long-term decline.IBISWorld also said it expected peer-to-peer lending - the practice of debt financing between two individuals - to increase markedly over the next five years to reach $907 million by 2019/20, against a background of increased risk due to the concept of unsecured debt with unknown collateralisation.