Corporate refinancing risk looms
Australian corporate bond spreads have risen by an average of about 40 per cent, or 33 basis points, over the past three weeks, prompting Macquarie Securities to caution that credit markets could be disrupted if spreads continue to rise.Macquarie says that with the fall in oil prices, the energy sector has seen the biggest increase in spreads. Overall, the increase is higher for lower quality and longer duration credit.Macquarie has issued a research report identifying ASX-listed companies that may face refinancing risk if disruption does occur. They are companies with refinancing needs over the next one to three years that are high relative to their market capitalisations.Construction materials company Wagners and ALE Property Group have to refinance debt in the coming year that is equivalent to more than 15 per cent of their market cap.ASX 100 companies with refinancing requirements over the next three years, whose maturing debt is equivalent to more than one-third of market cap, include Qantas (36 per cent), Unibail Rodamco Westfield (56 per cent), Downer EDI (51 per cent), Link Administration Holdings (40 per cent), Lendlease Group (40 per cent) and Incitec Pivot (39 per cent).Outside the ASX 100, there are several companies whose three-year refinancing needs exceed their market cap. They include Seven West Media (371 per cent), oOh! Media (135 per cent) and Southern Cross Media (122 per cent).Macquarie says one estimate of the likely fall in television ad market revenue this financial year puts Seven West Media at risk of breaching its debt covenant.Several ASX 100 companies have no debt drawn down. They include the a2 Milk Company, Altium, Xero and Wisetech Global.