Country anchor weighs on AA credit ratings
Standard & Poor's will finalise its revised criteria for rating banks this week. S&P advised last week that the extent of rating revisions will be less than had been thought at the start of this year.S&P released two requests for comment in January. The first request for comment focused on proposed changes to S&P's Banking Industry Country Risk Assessments (BICRA); the second looked at how the Stand Alone Credit Profile (SACP) of a bank is determined and how it feeds into the final Issuer Credit Rating (ICR).S&P now expects that only 20 per cent of banks will be downgraded - 15 per cent by one notch and five per cent by two or more notches. However, it also expects that 20 per cent will be upgraded by one notch, and 60 per cent will remain unchanged.The big question is the fate of the ratings on the Australian banks. Talk in the market last week was leaning towards a one notch downgrade, though this may not be the case.BICRA reflects the general credit-worthiness of a country's banking industry and is used to determine the relative risk level of a country's banking industry on a global basis.It is measured on a scale of one (lowest risk) to 10 (highest risk) and is a direct input into determining the SACP of a bank. The latter uses the standard S&P ratings scale (though denoted in lower case letters e.g., 'aaa' or 'bbb' etc.)At the same time as releasing the requests for comment, in January S&P released its preliminary revised BICRA assessments for 23 countries, including Australia and New Zealand. Both saw their assessments fall by one notch, to two and three, respectively. The final country assessments will be released this week.The country assessments serve as an anchor for individual bank credit ratings, which can be notched up or down, and take into account S&P's relative strength ratings of a bank's business position, capital and earnings, risk position, and liquidity.Australian banks may be trusting that the improving profile of their liabilities (with less wholesale debt, more longer term debt, rising deposits and an abundance of liquid assets) will help maintain their AA ratings from S&P.However, this may not flow through to the banks' New Zealand subsidiaries. Once S&P releases the revised BICRA scores this week, it will then progressively roll out its revised or confirmed ratings on the banks it rates.