Crisis and consolidation working for CBA
Commonwealth Bank late yesterday provided a minor surprise and published, in headlines terms, its tentative profit for the half year to December 2008.CBA said it expected to report a cash net profit of about $2 billion, which is down 16 per cent on the December 2007 half year but, most importantly, 20 per cent more than CBA's estimate of the "market consensus" for its earnings.The bank said statutory NPAT was likely to exceed $2.5 billion, around nine per cent higher than the same period last year, including a $550 million post tax gain from the acquisition of Bank of Western Australia.This write-up of the value of BankWest at the half year, and only two weeks or so after taking control of the regional bank, appears to confirm the exceptionally low price (for less than net assets) that Commonwealth paid for the bank in a deal negotiated at the height of the global financial crisis in early October.The cartel-consolidating affects of the GFC are helping Commonwealth Bank in other ways, principally by flooding the bank with anxious depositors and even more anxious business borrowers, with both types willing to lend to the bank or borrow from it at higher margins than used to be the case.As a result CBA said in its statement yesterday that it expected first half operating income to rise around 15 per cent over the December 2007 half.One offsetting factor is a decline in funds management income, down about 12 per cent, though insurance income is expected to increase by around 10 per cent.A key detail that may explain the earnings surprise is that the bank estimates impairment charges of around $1.6 billion. While this is a major multiple of the level 12 months ago it is probably less than pessimistic forecasters expected.The reason appears to be (and this is a consistent theme at CBA) that the bank is taking the most literal view of the Australian version of international financial reporting standards and that in turn means the bank raises provisions for loans only when a loan is clearly a bad loan.In contrast one or two other banks (such as ANZ) have been doing what they can to pad current provisions to cater to later loan losses.