Decade low for home finance
The flow of negative news weighing on banking stocks gushed more strongly on Tuesday with the release of official data showing a further sharp slide in housing finance activity.According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, home lending to owner-occupiers and investors declined, in seasonally adjusted terms, by 6.4 per cent in December 2018.The fall is the largest monthly decline recorded since the global financial crisis and confirms the difficult trading environment apparent in the Bendigo Bank and CBA half-year results released in the last week."The slowdown in lending for investor dwellings this month continues the steady decline over the past two years, with the value of new investor loan commitments down around 40 per cent from the peak at the start of 2017," said ABS chief economist, Bruce Hockman."The slowdown in lending for owner occupier dwellings is more recent, with falls concentrated in the last half of 2018."The biggest falls in owner-occupier borrowing were posted in Queensland(down 9.9 per cent), the Northern Territory (down 18.3 per cent) and Victoria (down 6.6 per cent).Release of the data exerted pressure on ASX-listed banks and mortgage brokers, with Yellow Brick Road posting the heaviest losses, closing down 26 per cent to six cents.Regional lenders and brokers bore the brunt of the sell-off.WA-based bank, Goldfields Money, shed 7 per cent, while embattled home loan broker Mortgage Choice lost 3 per cent.AFG, Bendigo Bank and Bank of Queensland each closed more than 2 per cent down.In seasonally adjusted terms, the number of loans to owner occupier first home buyers was down 12.6 per cent from December 2017.While the fall in lending to first home buyers over the past year reflects the broader trend of weaker lending activity, the fall is smaller than the fall in lending to owner occupier non-first home buyers ( down 15.5 per cent) and follows strong growth in 2017.There were also falls in lending to households for personal finance (down 2.9 per cent) and for refinancing (down 3.2 per cent), seasonally adjusted.Economists are starting to review their outlooks for monetary policy following the recent stream of negative data relating to the housing market. National Australia Bank chief economist Alan Oster said the next adjustment of the cash rate could be a cut as soon as the second half of this year.