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Deutsche sees stronger revenue growth in 2013 financial year

03 September 2012 4:53PM
The consensus estimates for the major banks' revenue growth in 2012/13 is too bearish, Deutsche Bank believes. In a note published last week, Deutsche Bank's banking analyst, James Freeman, said: "We see stronger revenue growth ahead in 2012/13 for the banking sector, with the full period benefit of asset re-pricing and lending momentum to provide revenue uplift of four to five per cent."The major banks added between 24 and 33 basis points of out-of-cycle rate increases between February and June. National Australia Bank made the biggest increases and ANZ the smallest.The full-period benefit of mortgage re-pricing is four to nine basis points of net interest margin in 2012/13, according to Deutsche. Commonwealth Bank and Westpac will receive the most benefit and ANZ the least, given its smaller mortgage book. There is a possibility of a further cash rate reduction of 50 basis points, which would cut that growth estimate by one percentage point. Movement in term deposit rates over the past few months is also good news for the banks. Deutsche said: "Our weekly tracking of term deposit rates suggests that rates have dropped by 90 basis points since February - 15 basis points more than the cash rate reduction during this period."Spreads are improving on new TDs, with the majority of the benefit to be felt in 2012/13."Offsetting this benefit is an ongoing switch from low-rate transaction accounts to term deposits.Taking these two factors into account, Deutsche estimates that term deposit re-pricing will provide three to four basis points of margin benefit to the majors.Deutsche said that another factor likely to contribute to higher revenue growth next year would be a turnaround in the banks' general insurance businesses, which have suffered losses from storm and flood claims over the past couple of years.Deutsche rates ANZ a Buy. It has the other three major banks on Hold.

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