Developers and households advance along watch list
Indicators of financial health of both mid-market corporates and households have taken a turn for the worse, separate analysis from Equifax and Digital Finance Analytics suggests.The more grim assessment of the two analyses, publicised yesterday, comes from Martin North, principal of Digital Finance Analytics."Mortgage stress continues to rise as households experience rising living costs, higher mortgage rates and flat incomes," North said."The risk of default is rising in areas of the country where underemployment, and unemployment are also rising. Expected future mortgage rate rises will add further pressure on households," he said.Digital Finance Analytics released updated estimates on mortgage stress and default modelling for Australian borrowers, for May 2017. DFA put the number of households now in mortgage stress at "more than 794,000", a rise of 27,000 since April. DFA said 30,000 of these households were "in severe stress."The firm added that "early 55,000 households risk default over the next 12 months."Equifax, drawing on credit scores and ratings across a portfolio of more than 30,000 businesses said its Mid-Market Risk Index eased to 98 for the year to December 2016, a decline of 0.5 from the previous year."This reflects the declining conditions in the financial flexibility, profitability and capitalisation of local mid-market businesses," Equifax said.Brad Walters, head of ratings services at Equifax, said the decline in overall credit quality could be attributed to several causes, including weakening activity in construction, and the growing divergence between the mining states, and New South Wales and Victoria."The weakening outlook for construction is also a major risk factor. Over the last year, strong growth in the demand for residential and commercial construction has masked a structural decline in engineering," Walters said."Construction activity has now fallen for six consecutive quarters, andrecent attempts to cool the housing market by regulators and policymakers may cause activity to fall further," he said.