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Economic balance tilts back to Europe

29 September 2017 3:00PM
The global economy is continuing its recovery, with the growth in world trade stronger than anticipated at the start of the year. Europe's performance is buoyant and political risks (although not disappearing altogether) are fading. This is the overview from global credit insurance provider Coface, in its "Country and Sector Risk Barometer, Q3 2017" report. "There are more and more positive signs in Brazil and Russia, while capital is once again flowing in some emerging countries," said Coface in its report summary. These positive trends have led the insurer to upgrade several country ratings, namely for Hungary, Finland, Cyprus and Belarus."Nevertheless, the outlook is not improving for the major English-speaking countries, as illustrated by lacklustre savings rates and wage dynamics in the USA and the UK. The Coface view of various economies' respective futures is further clouded by major political uncertainty: "Brexit negotiations seem to be moving at a glacial pace, while Donald Trump is disappointing investors, particularly with regard to [his] tax plan."This does not suggest good news on the private consumption front, as certain signs of slowdown are already visible in these two economies. Conversely, the political horizon has become considerably clearer in Europe. This situation could naturally lead to the continued appreciation of the euro against the dollar.

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