Effectiveness of countercyclical buffer questioned
The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision's plan for a countercyclical buffer, which would require banks to add more to capital during periods of high credit growth, would be clawed back with 30 basis points of loan re-pricing, an analyst said.JP Morgan banking analyst Scott Manning said he modelled the impact of the countercyclical buffer assuming a maximum level of a two per cent addition to tier one capital.Manning said: "The countercyclical credit buffer does have some merit in theory but would have limited practical application in the Australian context."The reprising response to higher capital levels would be insufficient to slow down rates of credit growth, based on the range of capital buffers being discussed. Based on our modelling, the relatively small re-pricing of the loan portfolio would be unlikely to dampen credit growth."Manning said that if the buffer had been in place during the housing-led credit boom of 2001 to 2007, the capital buffer would have built up gradually and only reached its maximum level six years after the credit-to-GDP gap started diverting from trend.