Encouraging signs for remaining credit wrappers
In its report entitled "Financial Guaranty Insurance Industry: 2009 Review and 2010 Outlook", Moody's Investors Service notes that the outlook is negative for the battered financial guarantor industry. The rating agency did, however, recognise certain encouraging signs, such as the resilient demand for bond insurance in some public finance market segments and early successes for some guarantors in remedying losses.This year is expected to better define the future of the industry as losses crystallise, corporate restructuring continues to unfold, and competitive dynamics evolve further. This year may also witness the entry of new guarantors, lured by the absence of competition, the current lack of alternative credit enhancement solutions, and the continued demand from smaller and higher risk municipal issuers. Moody's believes that there is greater receptivity for guarantors with higher risk profiles than in the past. However, there is also a lower perceived value of their insurance and thus narrower market opportunities. Should asset spreads normalise and competitive pressures increase, this situation may weaken guarantors' future pricing power and profitability.Meanwhile, credit wrapper, Assured Guaranty Corp and its now wholly-owned subsidiary, Financial Security Assurance, instructed Fitch Ratings to withdraw their 'AA-' and 'AA' insurer financial strength and other credit ratings. Assured Guaranty is not known to have wrapped any bond issues in Australia or New Zealand but FSA has been active in both markets, including a A$659 million, October 2027 bond issued by Sydney Airport Finance Company. Fitch said there is no impact on the underlying 'BBB/Stable' rating assigned to this bond.