European mess aids Asian business
Europe's public debt crisis reinforces key themes in ANZ's positioning in Asia, and that of Australian business generally, ANZ's Asian chief told a conference in Melbourne yesterday.Alex Thursby, ANZ's CEO of Asia Pacific, Europe and America, argued that economic growth in Europe will be minimal at best and may be worse if events follow an adverse course.Speaking at Finsia's Asia Financial Services Summit 2010 in Melbourne yesterday, Thursby outlined two scenarios.The downside scenario is that market participants form the view that euro zone policymakers are not dedicated to finding a solution to the crisis. If this view takes hold, the next one to two years will see extreme volatility in financial markets - the volatility seen in recent months because of Greece will seem like a normal day in the market. The base case scenario is that reduced budget expenditures and increased taxes will in fact work towards gradually addressing the structural problems that exist, but economic growth will inevitably be reduced to minimal levels for some years to come.As either scenario plays out in Europe, the United States is expected to continue its recovery from the GFC with modest economic growth achieved over the next few years, Thursby said. Thursby adopted the line that the GFC was a non-event for Asia and that Asia will continue to outperform the rest of the world in terms of its economic growth in coming years. He set out four reasons for Asia's continuing outperformance:* Strong and growing intra-Asian trade, with the reliance on exporting to the rest of the world falling.* The development, over the last decade, of strong banking and financial systems (and being the result of the lessons learned from the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s).* Many countries in the region enjoy high personal savings rates, providing significant systemic liquidity. For example, bank loan to deposit ratios are running at around 70 per cent to 75 per cent across the region. Banks have not over-extended themselves.* Significant foreign exchange reserves are held within the region.