For the banks, this crisis may be different
Financial markets may be superficially exhibiting a degree of stress reminiscent of the later months of 2008, but in reality the credit markets are not functioning badly and Australia's large banks have succeeded in selling their debt - in reasonable volumes - into offshore markets.Westpac, with impeccable timing, raised JPY101 billion for five years in Japan's Samurai bond market last Thursday. The amount raised converts to approximately A$1.2 billion, and the pricing achieved in the Japanese market doesn't seem too bad, with the fixed-rate tranche yielding just one per cent per annum. Data from Markit shows that Westpac's five-year credit default swap (CDS) spreads had been moving in a range of between 125 basis points and 135 basis points over the previous month (as had those for each of the major banks). On the day, the spread was at 130 basis points, but the next day (Friday) it moved out beyond 145 points.Not that there is anything wrong with the credit quality of Westpac, it has simply been caught up in the overwhelming fear that is once more rolling through global financial markets. Ironically, five-year CDS spreads for Australia and New Zealand widened on Friday by 13 and 22 basis points, to 70 and 92 points, respectively, while CDS spreads for US sovereign risk narrowed by four basis points to 57 points. That spread didn't change on Monday, despite S&P's downgrade of the US.What we saw in 2008, during the first round of the GFC, was no sizeable wholesale bond issuance by the major banks from the end of September 2008 until mid-December, and then the banks came back to the market with an 'AAA' rated guarantee from the Commonwealth government. This second round of the GFC is likely to see a similar issuance pattern but a reinstatement of the Commonwealth government guarantee facility is unlikely unless things get much worse.Over recent months, as conditions in global financial markets have deteriorated, the major banks have been much more opportunistic about their wholesale bond issuance. Westpac's Samurai issue last week is a prime example of this. Commonwealth Bank stands out as being the most successful in exploiting the opportunities presented by fluctuating investor demand. It was able to raise A$2.5 billion in the domestic market at a spread of 117 basis points over swap/bank bills for five years less than two weeks before Westpac tapped the Samurai market. The credit spread of 117 points was the same as that achieved by NAB a month earlier, when it raised A$2.8 billion, in the domestic market.Also, at the same time that Commonwealth Bank was hitting the domestic market, NAB was active in the US s144A market, raising US$2.6 billion in three- and five-year tranches. The three funds cost NAB 95 basis points over Libor, while the five-year funds were priced at 160 points over US Treasuries. The only one of the major banks that has not been opportunistically active in recent weeks is ANZ. The bank last issued in the domestic market in early