FX shift may cull kangaroo bonds
The value of the Australian dollar relative to the US dollar has plummeted since the decision by the Reserve Bank's board to cut the official cash rate to a historic low at its May meeting. Last Thursday, the dollar fell below US96 cents as financial markets responded to fears the US Federal Reserve may soon start to wind back quantitative easing activities and Goldman Sachs told the world that its top trade is shorting the Aussie dollar.The Aussie dollar has been a hot currency among global investors because of the AAA risk-weighting of the Australian economy, and because of the relatively high yields on offer. And, for those that got in early, there has been significant currency appreciation to enjoy along the way.All of this is now at risk of being unwound if the Aussie dollar is about to return to "normal levels". Credit Suisse has a 12-month forecast of US85 cents for the Aussie, and others are saying it could even go to US80 cents by the end of next year.Much of the kangaroo issuance seen in recent years has been driven by investor appetite for Australian dollar-denominated bonds. Triple A-rated kangaroo issuance is ideal in this respect, as the bonds offer both a yield and a currency play with very little credit risk.But, if the Aussie dollar is about to take a nose dive, kangaroo issuance may be about to go the same way, especially if current international holders now decide to take their profits and reduce their currency exposure.Monthly kangaroo issuance increased substantially as the Aussie dollar climbed from US80 cents towards US110 cents from 2009, and then moderated as the dollar stabilised between US100 and US110 cents. As the Aussie dollar makes its way back to US80 cent, issuers will reconsider.For time being, Australian dollar issues appeal. Kangaroo issuers accounted for three of the five bond issues in the domestic market last week, albeit with the total volume of kangaroo issuance on the low side at just A$325 million. There was also NZ$175 million of bonds issued in the kauri market.African Development Bank (rated AAA) opened a new five-year floating rate note at A$100 million. The bonds were priced at 25 basis points over bank bills.Inter-American Development Bank (AAA) added A$175 million to its September 2017 line, taking outstandings to A$725 million. The top-up was priced at CGS plus 60.75 bps to yield 3.295 per cent.Westpac raised US$1.25 billion from the sale of five-year covered bonds, priced at a spread of just 35 bps over mid-swaps, in the US s144A market. Last December, Westpac sold US$2 billion of five-year covered bonds at a spread of 50 bps over mid-swaps in the same market.