Home loan arrears up against a low interest market
Australian prime home-loan arrears remained steady in June, with the Standard & Poor's Performance Index slipping just one basis point from the 1.50 per cent mark set in May. (The SPIN measures the weighted-average of arrears more than 30 days past due on residential mortgage loans in publicly and privately rated Australian RMBS transactions.)Of note is that arrears typically decline in June and, at 1.51 per cent, the rate for prime mortgages among owner-occupiers this year is up 13 basis points on the June 2018 figures. It's well above the five-year average of 1.25 per cent, rolling toward its long-term peak of 1.83 per cent, S&P reported.And all this at a time when interest rates are at historical lows, around 3.00 per cent lower than the last spike in mortgage arrears. "This reflects borrowers' increased debt-serviceability pressures in a low wage-growth environment," S&P observed."We expect arrears to stabilise in the next quarter, in line with the seasonal pattern and assisted by cuts to interest rates and taxes. These stimuli will have a greater effect on the less-severe arrears categories, which historically have been more sensitive to interest-rate cuts," the ratings agency stated.Improvements in housing market conditions should also bolster lending conditions and improve borrowers' refinancing prospects.Mortgage performances have been patchy nationally: arrears fell in Queensland, South Australia, Northern Territory, and the Australian Capital Territory; they rose in Western Australia, Tasmania, New South Wales, and Victoria.