Ill winds blowing from AFG sales barometer
Tighter access to wholesale funding in a rising interest rate environment has dampened residential lending demand in Australia, if the regular sales monitor from Australian Finance Group is any guide.Australian Finance Group's March 2008 quarterly sales are 13 per cent lower than the December 2007 quarter and 24 per cent down on the September 2007 quarter. Mark Hewitt, general manager sales and operations at AFG, said, "If we are down the amount we are, how much are others down?"Australian Bureau of Statistics data lags the AFG sales report by up to two calendar months so this is difficult to determine, with the most recent data January 2008.AFG account for a tenth of all mortgage sales in Australia, so their index is a start.Since AFG began to publish this series in early 2005 the AFG monthly volume change compared to ABS data released six weeks later has been within plus or minus ten per cent 26 times, with 14 results greater than ten per cent.When monitoring total monthly dollars lent, 24 instances have been within 10 per cent of ABS figures with 16 instances greater.November to February has been the least accurate for AFG, with the rate of change consistently greater than ten per cent, with equal instances higher rather than lower. The April to September period consistently displayed similar results between the two organisations, compared to the more unpredictable sales in the months either side of the Christmas break.AFG have therefore under-performed the market in early 2008 or out-performed in mid 2007, but we will not know for another two months until the ABS February and March data is available.