Investors' cash holdings to decline
The proportion of cash and term deposits Australians hold in their personal investment portfolios will fall back from current elevated levels but will remain above the levels recorded before the financial crisis. According to a new study by the actuarial consulting firm, Rice Warner, cash and term deposits have grown from around 30 per cent of personal investment portfolios in the years before the global financial crisis to 34.4 per cent today.Rice Warner projects that over the next 15 years, to 2026, cash and term deposits will make up an average of 32 per cent of portfolios.Rice Warner's study looked at all private investments other than superannuation and the family home. Apart from cash and term deposits (at 34.4 per cent of the total) investment property makes up 46.8 per cent, equities 13.7 per cent, fixed interest products 4.9 per cent and "others" 0.2 per cent.Factors contributing to the shift in the weighting to cash and term deposits, from 30 per cent to 34.4 per cent over the past few years, have included changing attitudes to risk in the wake of the financial crisis and the more attractive pricing of deposit products.Rice Warner's view is that investors will change their attitude to risk when equity markets enjoy a sustained period of growth. This will lead to a shift from cash back to growth assets - equities and property.It said the high deposit rates - a function of banks shifting their funding to stable deposits - was a medium-term phenomenon.Investors tend to have a bias towards assets whose returns are taxed at concessional rates. The Government's plan to introduce a tax rebate on interest from savings may help maintain flows to cash, but the planned concession is small and its introduction has been delayed twice already.Rice Warner expects cash and term deposit holdings to fall back, but not to pre-GFC levels. This is because investors in an ageing population will look for more interest-bearing assets to provide retirement income.A director of Rice Warner, Richard Weatherhead, said the percentage changes in the projections were small, but the dollar amount were very large and would involve significant shifts.