Commonwealth Bank chief executive Ian Narev will this week present his first strategy briefing since taking on the top job at the bank last year. Analysts are looking for a tougher approach to costs, a bigger push into business areas where the bank presently has a small presence now (such as general insurance) and a clearer view of what CBA is doing in Asia.Last week Macquarie Equities downgraded CBA from Neutral to Underperform, arguing in a substantial report on the bank that whatever steps it takes will not stop a fall in return on equity over the next couple of years.Macquarie's view is that business initiatives will cost money to develop and, therefore, will take time to deliver returns. At the same time, the bank's big retail and wealth management business will remain under pressure.Macquarie's "worst case scenario" has CBA suffering a two to three per cent decline in return on equity over the next three to five years. The bank produced a 19 per cent ROE in 2010/11. Macquarie is forecasting that this will fall to 17.4 per cent in 2012/13 and to 17.1 per cent in 2013/14.Macquarie said: "We expect the retail business will come under pressure, not only as domestic growth slows but also from increasing capital intensity as mortgage risk-weights trough and increase from here."Macquarie is forecasting retail bank asset growth of 1.9 per cent in the June half, increasing to 2.6 per cent in the December half. It said: "In wealth management, retail flows remain anaemic and wealth margins are likely to be under pressure, with changes in regulation and moves towards passive funds driving margin pressure."It is forecasting that wealth management funds under management will fall two per cent in the June half and then grow one per cent in the December half.Macquarie's view is that CBA's strong ROE performance in recent years was a result of higher household leverage and abnormal growth in wealth management inflows.The leveraging of households in the decade to 2007 led to mortgages as a percentage of CBA's assets increasing from 52 per cent in 2000 to 66 per cent today. The decade to 2007 also saw abnormal growth in the wealth industry. Before the financial crisis, growth in funds under management was running at 9 per cent a year. FUM declined markedly during the GFC and recovery has been slow.Macquarie said: "Wealth is at a cyclical low. However, increased retail participation appears a long way off. Retail fund flows lag institutional flows by up to three years in a recovery, and institutional flows are still negative."The move away from commissions to fee-for-service in wealth management is creating a trend to low-cost indexed products."Wealth managers are discounting platform fees as an incentive to get advisers to move their clients onto their platforms."Macquarie's view is that none of CBA's strategic options can, in the medium term, make up for the loss of ROE from weak retail and wealth management. It said: "CBA's strategic options are to squeeze costs, expand into