Macquarie Group given positive outlook by S&P
Standard and Poor's Global Ratings have revised their outlook on Macquarie Group from stable to positive. S&P applauded the group's move to adopt a simplified structure that better reflects the activities of its diverse businesses. A clean slate from the Hayne royal commission into banking and financial services misconduct also worked in Macquarie's favour. Once its internal restructure is completed, S&P said it expected greater visibility of individual businesses and fewer complexities. The ratings agency affirmed its long-term BBB issuer rating for the group.The note from S&P also stated that the agency's outlook for the Macquarie Bank business unit has been revised from negative to "developing", and affirmed its long-term rating at A. The uptick in outlook also took into account "the performance and risk management outcomes of the group and the bank as well as the reorientation of the group's businesses toward repeatable and sustainable income sources, as opposed to a capital markets focused business [of MGL's international peer banks]," S&P explained. "Compared to a peer group of international banks, the volatility of the group's earnings has been lower for a sustained period."Another point S&P saw as clearly in Macquarie's favour was re-iterated by the now-retired CEO Nicolas Moore in his one appearance at the royal commission: to date, no material adverse findings have emerged from the commission to taint Macquarie."We note that, in the past, the group has effectively dealt with enforceable undertakings and addressed recommended shortcomings in line with expectations," S&P said, noting that the bank's risk management staff levels have nearly doubled over the last eight years."In our view, the group's risk management framework with regard to conduct appears to be sound relative to Australian major banks," the agency observed.Nevertheless, the ratings agency remained circumspect about a near-future upgrade, and noted "there is at least a one-in-three probability that over the next two years we may reflect the positive transition in the group and the bank's credit profile." This was due to the as yet unresolved threat posed to the credit profile of the bank from a potential weakening of extraordinary government support. That is in addition to the already "wide and complex range of credit and non-credit risks [the group manages] across various businesses and geographies relative to traditional mainstream banks."This is especially so, as far as legal and compliance risks are concerned, given the group's diversified geographic, product and industry reach, relative to the Australian major banks (which are largely domestic-focused residential mortgage banks and which S&P have assessed assess at one notch stronger than Macquarie Bank).