Macroprudential measures shine through APRA stats
APRA published its quarterly information on the financial performance, financial position, capital adequacy, asset quality, liquidity and key financial performance ratios for the September 2017 quarter, and compared these with the numbers for the comparable September quarter in 2016.The general trend could be summed up as steady improvement in the key non-performing loans statistics for ADIs for September 2017. Impaired assets and past due items dropped 6.4 per cent to A$26.2 billion; total provisions declined even further in relative terms, down by 12.9 per cent to $11.5 billion.Martin North, the principal of Digital Finance Analytics, analysed trends in the loan to value ratios disclosed by APRA. Overall, the volume of loans sourced through brokers is climbing. "Looking at third party origination, we see that origination from foreign banks is sitting at 70 per cent of new loans, mutuals around 20 per cent and other banks around the 50 per cent mark," North wrote."We see a small fall in the relative proportion of loans in the 60 to 80 per cent range, but close to half of all loans written are still in this range."Turning to the 80 to 90 per cent LVR range, we see a rise in lending by foreign banks, with more than 20 per cent of their loans falling in this range. Other lenders are averaging 10 to 15 per cent."There is a rise in loans above 90 per cent being written by mutuals as they try to grow share - lifting the proportion of such loans from less than 10 per cent, to the point where it's tracking at over 15 per cent of all loans written. Meanwhile the proportion of bank loans that are high LVR is sitting at around seven per cent, and foreign banks lower still."Overall, North said, there is evidence of see the impact of regulatory intervention. The net impact is to slow lending momentum."As lenders tighten their lending standards, new borrowers will find their ability to access larger loans will diminish. But the loose standards we have had for several years will take up to a decade to work through, and with low income growth, high living costs and the risk of an interest rate rise, the risks in the system remain."New interest only loan approvals have fallen from, in the case of the major banks, around 40 per cent to 20 per cent, and we see the regulatory pressure has reduced the mix across the board. We also see a fall in the volume of investment loans being held on book. As the lion's share of interest-only lending has been for investment purposes, this is of no surprise."The relative share of interest only loans in the portfolio has also moved, North explains, as households switch to more expensive principal and repayment loans. "Interest-only loans have fallen from around 40 per cent in total value to 35 per cent, but this represents a fall from around 30 per cent of the loan count, to 27 per cent. This again reflecting the