Many 'fund' current account deficit
In a speech that canvassed the facts and policy issues around Australia's capital flows, Guy Debelle, assistant governor for financial markets at the RBA, said that over the last two decades "there have been some quite sizeable changes in the size and composition of Australia's current account."The current account deficit fluctuated in a range of between two per cent and six per cent of gross domestic product, Debelle said."At the same time, there was reasonable stability in the major components of the capital account. The inflow arising from the offshore funding of the banking sector was around 3.5 per cent of GDP. "This led to the common assessment that the Australian banking sector was 'funding the current account'. In my opinion, this analysis is incomplete."Debelle cited the "substantial Australian investment abroad, particularly in the form of equity", as well as, at times, "sizeable equity inflows to Australia."Over the past few years, the composition of these capital flows has changed quite significantly, providing some contrary evidence to the hypothesis that the banks fund the current account. "I don't think there was any particular problem with the structure of these capital flows previously, nor do I think there is one now."In 2010, the net inflow to the Australian banking sector was close to zero."Indeed, over the last three quarters of 2010, the Australian banking sector was a net re-payer of its offshore liabilities. That is, maturities exceeded issuance. "This did not reflect a lack of appetite for Australian bank paper, as the cost of issuance was broadly flat or even slightly lower over the period. Instead, it reflected the fact that the banks had less need for wholesale borrowing given the... [combination] of fast deposit growth and subdued asset growth."