Mismatch in lead and lag lending point to an uptick in loans
Lenders can expect a pick-up in business during the current quarter, if the latest figures from Equifax and the Australian Bureau of Statistics are any guide. Equifax, a credit information and analysis provider in Australia and New Zealand, has released its Quarterly Consumer Credit Demand index showing the volume of credit card and personal loan applications rose at a rate of 4.6 per cent in the March quarter, compared with the same period in 2016. That makes the Equifax numbers a lead indicator - and trending upwards - except for car loans. Personal loan applications were up by 13.5 per cent over the same period in 2016 and up by 1.1 per cent on the last quarter, which Equifax said was a sign of a continuing divergence in the growth of personal loans versus credit card applications. Angus Luffman, senior general manager of consumer products at Equifax, said the rise in personal loan applications was underpinned by new lending entrants with differentiated options for borrowers. "The data from the March Index by Equifax showed increased personal loan activity, consistent with the recent credit data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, which showed that new personal finance commitments in January grew by 3.9 per cent year on year," he said. "At the same time, the Reserve Bank of Australia has found that people are making more frequent, lower value transactions on their credit cards, with purchases per account up 6.3 per cent, while the spend per purchase was down by 4.6 per cent." Despite the continued growth in personal loan applications, car loan applications fell by 2.2 per cent, following slowing growth in the last two quarters. Credit card applications fell in all states and territories in the March quarter. Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for February 2017 tell a different story. The total value of housing finance commitments for owner housing occupation (excluding alterations and addition) rose 0.2 per cent in trend terms. The seasonally adjusted series fell 0.5 per cent, and did the trend series for the value of total personal finance commitments (down 0.3 per cent). Fixed lending commitments fell 0.6 per cent, while revolving credit commitments rose 0.2 per cent. According to ABS data, the seasonally adjusted series for the value of total personal finance commitments fell 3.8 per cent. Fixed lending commitments fell 4.7 per cent and revolving credit commitments fell 2.2 per cent. The trend was much the same for commercial finance. The trend series for the value of total commercial finance commitments fell 1.8 per cent. Revolving credit commitments fell 3.2 per cent and fixed lending commitments fell 1.5 per cent. The seasonally adjusted series for the value of total commercial finance commitments rose 1.8 per cent. Revolving credit commitments rose 25.5 per cent, while fixed lending commitments fell 2.8 per cent. The trend series for the value of total lease finance commitments rose 6.4 per cent in February 2017 and the seasonally adjusted series fell 31.5 per cent, after a rise of 73.6 per cent in January 2017.