Mortgage Choice headwinds blow away guidance
Future revenue uncertainty surrounding broker commissions and a weak residential lending market continue to weigh on Mortgage Choice.Net profit for the mortgage broking group fell a quarter of a million to $19.3 million for the year to June 2008, with revenue up three per cent to $161 million.The broker was unable to provide earnings guidance for the 2009 financial year due to "varying material uncertainty around at least four significant variables with a great degree of unpredictability," according to chief executive officer Paul Lahiff.The impact of recent commission changes outweighs the three other variables of uncertain economic conditions, short-term settlement growth and the lender panel composition."The results, I should say, are essentially unaffected by the 2008 commission rate changes," said chief financial officer Tony Crossley."The new 2008 changes starting in April don't really affect the result for financial year 2008."Mortgage Choice appears to be suffering from the mass exodus by many financial institutions away from brokers, with Crossley commenting, "Business did actually subside in the second half of the (financial) year; settlements were down around 15 per cent."Crossley provided indicative commission rate impacts for financial year 2009. "We expect upfront income to go down by roughly ten per cent in the coming year, we expect trail cash flow to go down by somewhat less than that (eight per cent), and therefore net income as a whole will go down (around nine per cent according to material provided).""Realistically, there are head winds facing this business," said Lahiff.Lahiff added that in a product diversification strategy Mortgage Choice may allow franchisees to offer personal loans, home and contents insurance, equipment leasing, and also, "Provide a broader commercial offering in life insurance," which is a decision that should have been made in previous years to diversify revenue away from such a strong residential mortgage bias.The market liked the result, pushing the shares up around ten per cent to $1.18, as investors chased the 100 per cent dividend payout ratio - with a fully franked eight cent dividend declared.Mortgage Choice shares are now twelve cents higher than last month's Count Financial implied (scrip) offer of $1.05, but well below year highs of $2.74. The year low is 76 cents.