NAB briefing ho hum for sell side
Banking analysts on the sell side saw this week's National Australia Bank strategic briefing as a chance to tinker with their models and update valuations, rather than adjust their thinking on the bank in any major way.The bank's chief executive, Cameron Clyne, forecast on Wednesday that he was "[looking] forward to a couple of 'I didn't learn anything' notes tomorrow." And that is what he got.But, he explained: "I appreciate that in many cases these strategy updates aren't as informative to the market as you like. That's actually not the point.""These strategy updates are exceptionally important for providing focus internally, which is why you do them, because we made some clear statements."In line with the CEO's cynicism, Citi's banking analysts described the cost program as "very light on detail."Like a lot of the sell-side analysts, Citi said it had already assumed there had been cost savings in the order of those outlined by NAB. (UBS, though, said these savings were "less than anticipated", given the conjecture in some media reports last week.)Citi did credit NAB with its decision to recognise "implementation costs… in cash earnings."Deutsche's analyst said NAB "delivered a sensible strategic update" that was "very clear, concise and perfectly logical for the current market conditions."Like some others, Deutsche concluded that "[since] other banks are pursuing similar strategies it is difficult to see the strategic plan as a differentiator."Macquarie's equities research analysts took the view that "NAB is the first major bank to address its cost base in an aggressive fashion" and these were "the first steps on the road to restoring confidence in the NAB strategy."UBS said that NAB was the first of the Australian major banks "to deliver a specific dollar value of cost-out targets to the market, and arguably the most comprehensive long-term roadmap to deliver low single-digit cost growth on a sustainable basis."The JP Morgan analysts reflected one common theme of market commentary, which was criticism of the limited changes to the bank's executive line up."NAB missed an opportunity to inject external talent across its ExCo [executive committee]," they said, implying a preference for an external candidate to replace the retiring chief financial officer.Morgan Stanley took the view that while "cost savings [are] incrementally positive [it is] revenue growth and loan losses [that] will remain the most important drivers of share price performance."The Morgan Stanley analysts reminded readers that "in recent years, NAB [has] disappointed on revenue and loan losses, not costs."On the other hand, they said, "the operating environment is improving and… [we are] looking for upgrades in 2014 from better business banking credit quality, an improved funding environment and a recovery in SME loan growth. "Credit Suisse analysts wrote that "any bullish expectations going into this briefing may have been disappointed given the absence of any substantial initiatives [or] scale of cost restructuring that clearly eclipses peer group initiatives.""NAB almost defiantly acknowledged the substantial lack of differentiation in their strategy, highlighting the truism that all is in the delivery."