Narev fails to move the needle
The strategy briefing presented by Commonwealth Bank chief executive Ian Narev last week will do nothing to move the bank's stock price, if analysts' reviews of the briefing are a reliable guide.Of the nine analyst commentaries sighted by Banking Day, only one was an upgrade. UBS changed its recommendation on CBA stock from Neutral to Buy.However, UBS is the only research house recommending that its clients buy CBA stock. Five analysts have CBA stock as a Hold or Neutral. Three recommend that the stock is a Sell or Underperform.Commonwealth Bank chief executive Ian Narev has committed the bank to pursuing its growth strategy "in Australia primarily" over the next few years. Narev believes the bank's key capabilities are best deployed meeting the needs of customers in its core franchises - the domestic retail and small business markets.He said the bank could create long term value by working on three core capabilities: the technology advantage the bank has gained through its core banking modernisation program; the big improvement in customer satisfaction and staff engagement that it has achieved over a number of years; and its strong balance sheet.Narev said: "When we determined our key capabilities we looked at whether we could strengthen them. We had to believe there was further value in leveraging these capabilities."And we had to believe these capabilities would be difficult for a competitor to replicate. We were not talking about anything like pricing. These had to be things that take years to build."UBS said: "The key feature of the presentation was its consistency with CBA's previous strategy. We view this positively."UBS has a price target of A$53.50 on CBA stock, which closed at $50.94 on Friday.For other analysts, consistency and continuity were not enough. CBA trades at 11.5 times 12-month prospective earnings, which is a nine per cent premium to the other big banks. It has the highest return on equity among the big banks - at 19 per cent.Merrill Lynch said: "While CBA has a sound strategy and clear areas of superior capability, it remains uncertain if it will preserve a high enough ROE or find the growth to justify the premium."Management is capable of delivering on its broad goals. However, we are not convinced that this will create enough of a differential versus its peers to justify the value gap."Macquarie said: "ROE is likely to be under pressure from competitive intensity, regulatory changes [and] a drive to higher balance-sheet quality and incremental investment."Several analysts were critical of the fact that Narev declined to set clear performance benchmarks. Deutsche Bank said: "The strategy day affirmed CBA's desire to continue an existing strategic agenda that has worked well in the past. And it dispelled any concerns that CBA will embark on a transformational M&A spree."We expect its advantages in IT capabilities to deliver greater revenue growth domestically than the other majors."However, the strategy is not likely to move the needle. The lack of hard metrics to judge performance externally is somewhat disappointing."Citi and JP Morgan also drew