New property price index predicts an orderly correction
CoreLogic and Moody's Analytics have joined forces to produce an Australian residential property forecasting index.Moody's has taken CoreLogic property data and built an econometric model that will forecast property values from one to ten years. It will be published regularly.The initial report, released yesterday, forecasts that the market will go through an orderly correction this year, with Sydney prices to rise by 2.2 per cent this year and 1.8 per cent in 2017.Melbourne's price will by seven per cent this year and 1.3 per cent in 2017. The national average is expected to rise by 3.6 per cent this year and 2.7 per cent in 2017.Short-term value drivers in the Moody's model include previous house price appreciation (a measure of momentum), building approvals, interest rates and wages growth.CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless said: "The market has not fallen off a cliff. It is a controlled rate of moderation, with values still rising in most markets."